Everyrisk

Turn business riskinto a defined payout.

Prediction markets already price events in real time. We turn that price into protection a business can buy: pick the event, pick the payout, hold the contract. First up, cloud outages.

Explore a contract that would pay if Amazon EC2 in AWS us-east-1 (N. Virginia) experienced a qualifying outage lasting more than during .

At an assumed 3.5¢ per $1 of payout for EC2-USE1-2H-30D, this contract costs $875 up front.

How it works
30 days. 1 qualifying outage. 1 defined payout.

Prototype contract. Prices are scenario assumptions. First live listing is the next milestone.

Amazon EC2, AWS us-east-1 (N. Virginia)

Illustrative service and region. AWS isn't involved.

A scenario assumption you control. Live prices will come from the venue, fees included.

Selected specification: EC2-USE1-2H-30D

Each threshold and period pair is its own contract specification and lists separately.

One contract, many buyers

Every business exposed to the same outage buys units of the same contract. Each unit pays $1 on a Yes. Want $25,000? Hold 25,000 units. Nobody needs a bespoke market; the contract is standard and the position size is yours. Change the threshold or the period and you're looking at a different specification, listed separately.

What counts as a qualifying outage

We read the provider, not your website. Yes means the named service was unavailable region-wide for longer than the threshold, without interruption, inside the window. Degraded performance doesn't count. Another region doesn't count. Exactly 2 hours doesn't count. Your own code breaking while AWS runs fine doesn't count either.

One mechanism, any measurable event

  1. Describe the event

    A region down for two hours. A port shut for a week. 38°C for three days running. If a public signal can measure it, we can write it as a contract: window, threshold, evidence rules, all fixed before anyone trades.

  2. Buy units of one shared contract

    Everyone exposed to the event buys units of the same Yes/No contract. Your payout sets how many. Whoever thinks the event won't happen takes the other side, and their price is your cost.

  3. Resolution follows the rule

    The window closes and the contract resolves Yes or No under the venue's rules. The payout per unit was written down on day one.

Insurance logic, market plumbing

We took what works in parametric insurance, a written trigger and a payout fixed before anything happens, and put it on rails that already exist: public prediction markets. Prices in the open. Collateral on-chain. Resolution by rule.

Priced in the open.

Every unit has a visible market price, set by people taking either side. No underwriting desk, no quote you can't see.

Collateralised on-chain.

Both sides post collateral into one pool when the position opens. The payout exists before the outage does.

Resolved by rule.

The contract resolves under the venue's approved rules and evidence requirements, the same process the venue runs on every market it lists.

  • Your exposure
  • Everyrisk contract layer
  • Prediction-market venueSuch as Polymarket
  • On-chain collateral and resolution

We're building for public prediction markets such as Polymarket. The first listing is the milestone we're working toward.

What you're buying

A defined payout.

The agreed amount on a Yes, no matter what your loss turned out to be.

A rule about the world, not about you.

The contract reads public signals about the provider. It never looks at your site, your revenue or your customers.

A market price, paid up front.

What the other side charges to carry the risk for the window. Not refunded on a No.

A market for every risk

Cloud goes first because the signal is public and the losses are obvious. Freight, power and weather run on the same playbook: find the signal, write the rule, list the contract.

Cloud outage

Signal
Provider status history, independent monitors
Who buys
Online businesses, SaaS, marketplaces
Status
Building

Port and freight delays

Signal
Port authority notices, vessel tracking
Who buys
Importers, retailers, manufacturers
Status
Next

Power price spikes

Signal
Day-ahead exchange prices
Who buys
Data centres, cold storage, industry
Status
Next

Extreme weather

Signal
National weather services, station data
Who buys
Events, construction, agriculture
Status
Next

One specification at a time. Cloud outage first.

What we're building now

23 October 2026

  1. Lock the settlement sources. Evidence sources, measurement method and tie-break rules for EC2-USE1-2H-30D, written so a stranger could resolve it.

    Building

  2. List the first contract. Take the specification to venues and line up the other side.

    Next

  3. Wire the execution. Pick a payout on this page, hold the position on the venue. One flow.

    Next

Who's building this

Ruben Hallali, PhD in atmospheric sciences, worked at Météo-France before co-founding HD Rain, and has worked on weather risk data and parametric protection for businesses since. He's launched twice before the machinery was finished and built it in the open both times. Everyrisk is his next one, independent of his other companies.

Get in touch